学术前沿 | 国际期刊中与“农产品产量”相关的文章

启研学社由知名学者担任学术顾问，由高校师生与企研数据科学团队联合组建的，是以大数据资源及相关技术助力中国学术、智库与行业研究为宗旨的研究组织。团队当前的主要目标是挖掘行政、经济与社会大数据资源在经济学学术、智库与相关行业研究领域中的应用价值，以学术研究为标准开展大数据治理研究，努力探索大数据分析技术融入中国经济社会研究的可行进路。 

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1China's Missing Pigs:Correcting China's Hog Inventory Data Using a Machine Learning Approach

中国失踪的猪：用机器学习方法纠正中国肉猪库存数据^[1]

作者：Yongtong Shao,Tao Xiong,Minghao Li,Dermot Hayes,Wendong Zhang,Wei Xie

发表日期：《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》 ,18 September 2020

摘要（中英文）：Small sample size often limitsforecasting tasks such as the prediction of production,yield,and consumptionof agricultural products.Machine learning offers an appealing alternative totraditional forecasting methods.In particular,support vector regression has superiorforecasting performance in small sample applications.In this article,weintroduce support vector regression via an application to China's hog market.Since 2014,China's hog inventory data has experienced an abnormal decline that contradicts price and consumption trends.We use support vector regression to predict the true inventory based on the price-inventory relationship before2014.We show that,in this application with a small sample size,supportvector regression outperforms neural networks,random forest,and linearregression.Predicted hog inventory decreased by 3.9% from November 2013 toSeptember 2017,instead of the 25.4% decrease in the reported data.

小样本规模往往会限制预测农产品的生产、产量和消费量等任务。机器学习成为传统预测方法的一种有吸引力的替代。特别是，支持向量回归在小样本应用中具有卓越的预测效果。文章通过对中国肉猪市场的一个应用介绍了支持向量回归方法。2014年以来，中国肉猪库存数据出现了与价格和消费趋势相矛盾的异常下降现象。基于2014年之前的价格与库存的关系，我们采用支持向量回归来预测真实库存。我们证明了在这个小样本容量的应用中，支持向量回归优于神经网络、随机森林和线性回归。2013年11月至2017年9月报告数据中，预测生猪库存量下降3.9%，而非下降25.4%。

关键词（中英文）：China;machine learning;prediction;pork;support vector regression

中国；机器学习；预测；猪肉；支持向量回归

期刊介绍：《AJAE》全称为《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》（《美国农业经济学杂志》）旨在为世界各地的农业和食品经济学、自然资源和环境、以及农村和社区发展等领域的创造性学术工作讨论提供平台。最新影响因子为4.082，刊载方向为管理科学-农业经济与政策。

2Does outsourcing affect agricultural productivity of farmer households? Evidence from China

外包是否影响农户的农业生产率?来自中国的证据^[2]

作者：Xin Deng; Dingde Xu; Miao Zeng; Yanbin Qi

发表日期：《China Agricultural Economic Review》,22 September 2020

摘要（中英文）：Previous studies focused on the influence of outsourcing (labor division) on productivity, especially in the industrial economy. However, few studies have focused on how labor division in agriculture affects agricultural productivity. To bridge this gap, this study uses survey data from 4864 farmer households in China to explore the impacts of outsourcing on agricultural productivity.,This study employs an endogenous switching regression to account for selection bias and a counterfactual framework to measure the degree of influence. Thus, this study analyzes determinants of outsourcing and the impacts of outsourcing on agricultural productivity under the same framework.,The results revealed the following. (1) Farmer households with the below average productivity tended to outsource; conversely, farmer households with the above average productivity tended to cultivate the land by themselves. (2) Productivity increased by 25.61% for farmer households who choose to outsource. Moreover, if nonoutsourcing farmer households would choose to outsource, their productivity would increase by 10.86%.,This study furthers one’s understanding of how outsourcing affects agricultural productivity among farmer households.

以往的研究主要集中在外包(分工)对生产率的影响,尤其是在工业经济中。然而,鲜有研究关注农业劳动分工如何影响农业生产率。为弥合这一差距,本文利用中国4864户农户的调查数据,探讨外包对农业生产率的影响,采用内生转换回归来解释选择偏误,并采用反事实框架来衡量影响程度。因此,本研究在同一框架下分析了外包的决定因素以及外包对农业生产率的影响。( 1 )低于平均生产率的农户倾向于外包,反之,高于平均生产率的农户倾向于自己耕种土地。( 2 )选择外包的农户生产率提高了25.61 %。如果非外包农户选择外包,其生产率将提高10.86 %,本研究进一步了解了外包对农户农业生产率的影响。

关键词（中英文）：Outsourcing; Agricultural productivity; Endogenous switching regression; China

外包；农业生产力；内生切换回归；中国

期刊介绍：《China Agricultural Economic Review》（中国农业经济评论）最新影响因子为2.172，旨在发表适用于中国农业农村决策过程、农业经济学学科发展以及希望借鉴中国农业农村发展经验的发展中国家的研究。

3How accurate are yield estimates from crop cuts? Evidence from smallholder maize farms in Ethiopia

从作物减产估算产量有多精确?来自埃塞俄比亚小农户玉米农场的证据^[3]

作者：Kosmowski Frederic; Chamberlin Jordan; Ayalew Hailemariam; Sida Tesfaye; Abay Kibrom; Craufurd Peter

发表日期：《Food Policy》,102 July 2021

摘要（中英文）：Agricultural statistics and applied analyses have benefitted from moving from farmer estimates of yield to crop cut based estimates, now regarded as a gold standard. However, in practice, crop cuts and other sample-based protocols vary widely in the details of their implementations and little empirical work has documented how alternative yield estimation methods perform. Here, we undertake a well-measured experiment of multiple yield estimation methods on 237 smallholder maize plots in Amhara region, Ethiopia. We compare yield from a full plot harvest with farmer assessments and with estimates from a variety of field sampling protocols: W-walk, transect, random quadrant, random octant, center quadrant, and 3 diagonal quadrants. We find that protocol choices are important: alternative protocols vary considerably in their accuracy relative to the whole plot, with absolute mean errors ranging from 23 (farmer estimates) to 10.6 (random octant). Furthermore, while most methods approximate the sample mean reasonably well, the divergence of individual measures from true plot-level values can be considerable. We find that randomly positioned quadrants outperform systematic sampling schemes: the random octant had the best accuracy and was the most cost-effective. The nature of bias is non-classical: bias is correlated with plot size as well as with plot management characteristics. In summary, our results advocate that even “gold standard” crop cut measures should be interpreted cautiously, and more empirical work should be carried out to validate and extend our conclusions.

农业统计和应用分析受益于从农民对产量的估计数转向以作物减产为基础的估计数,现在被视为金标准。然而,在实际应用中,作物减产和其他基于样本的估产方法在具体实现细节上存在很大差异,很少有实证研究报道替代估产方法的性能。这里,我们对埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区237个小农户玉米地块进行了多种产量估算方法的实测试验。我们比较了全样地收获的产量与农户的评价,以及不同的田间抽样方案：W - walk,cross,random象限,random octant,center象限和3对角象限的估测。我们发现,协议的选择很重要：替代协议的准确性相对于整个地块差异很大,绝对平均误差从23 (农民估计)到10.6 (随机八分位数)不等。此外,虽然大多数方法都能很好地逼近样本均值,但个别度量值与真实的图层值之间的差异很大。我们发现随机定位象限优于系统采样方案：随机八进制的精度最好,性价比最高。偏倚的性质是非经典的：偏倚既与情节大小有关,也与情节管理特点有关。总而言之,我们的研究结果主张,即使是“金本位”的农作物减产措施也应谨慎解读,并应开展更多的实证工作来验证和推广我们的结论。

关键词（中英文）：Agricultural systems; Crop production; Crop yields; Measurement errors; Farm survey data; Sampling methods

农业系统；作物生产; 农作物产量; 测量误差；农场调查数据；抽样方法

期刊介绍：《Food Policy》（食品政策）最新影响因子为4.552，发表有关发展中国家、转型期和发达经济体食品部门政策制定、实施和评估问题的原始研究和新证据，主要刊载食品政策的经济和社会方面文章。

4Microdata analysis of Japanese farmers’ productivity: Estimating farm heterogeneity and elasticity of substitution among varieties

日本农户生产率的微观数据分析：估计农户异质性和品种间替代弹性^[4]

作者：Akune Yuko; Hosoe Nobuhiro

发表日期：《Agricultural Economics》,24 May 2021

摘要（中英文）：Modern theories of trade and economic geography consider the role of product differentiation under monopolistic competition in manufacturing, under the assumption that agriculture produces homogeneous goods. By contrast, agribusiness studies examine the case of active high‐productivity entrepreneurs who pursue product differentiation by creating new products. To reconcile these two contradicting views of agriculture, we examine the incidence of farm heterogeneity and product differentiation. We use microdata of Japanese farmers to estimate their total factor productivity and find that heterogeneity is relatively low in the fruit, rice, and greenhouse horticulture farming sectors, and high in the livestock and poultry sectors. We find that the degree of product differentiation is relatively high in the livestock and poultry sectors, and that elasticity of substitution in the vegetable and upland field farming sectors is around three, which is similar to the findings of earlier studies.

现代贸易经济地理学理论在假定农业生产同质商品的前提下,考虑了垄断竞争下产品差异化在制造业中的作用。相比之下,农业企业研究则考察了积极的高生产率企业家通过创造新产品来追求产品差异化的案例。为了调和这两种与农业相矛盾的观点,我们考察了农场异质性和产品差异化的发生率。我们利用日本农户的微观数据估计其全要素生产率,发现异质性在水果、水稻和温室园艺养殖部门相对较低,在畜禽部门相对较高。我们发现,畜禽部门的产品差异化程度相对较高,蔬菜和旱地农业部门的替代弹性在3左右,这与之前的研究结果类似。

关键词（中英文）：agricultural productivity; firm heterogeneity; product differentiation; total factor productivity

农业生产力；企业异质性；产品差异化; 全要素生产率

期刊介绍：《Agricultural Economics》最新影响因子为2.585，涵盖最广泛意义上的农业经济学，从食品消费和营养到土地使用和环境，涵盖从家庭到市场和宏观经济的各个分析尺度。

5Agricultural production under rural tourism on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: From the perspective of smallholder farmers

青藏高原乡村旅游下的农业生产：小农视角^[5]

作者：Lun Yang; Jing Sun; Moucheng Liu; Qingwen Min

发表日期：《Land Use Policy》,103 April 2021

摘要（中英文）：Rural tourism has been the leading alternative livelihood of farmers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent years. However, the trade-off between agricultural production and rural tourism has been gradually serious. Therefore, we selected the Zhagana Village, an example of rural tourism on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, to discuss the agricultural production under rural tourism from smallholder farmers' perspective, and analyze its existence severity of the trade-off. Based on the comparative analysis of smallholder farmers' agricultural production behavior (including the production scale, agricultural input, agricultural output, and production efficiency), we reviewed the agricultural production in the whole study region in 2005–2019. The results show a certain degree of trade-off between agricultural production and rural tourism on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. At the level of smallholder farmers, under the background of rural tourism development, agricultural production efficiency (mainly the production efficiency of grassland) has significantly increased due to the further expansion of the scale of livestock husbandry by smallholder farmers. At the regional level, with the development of rural tourism, the regional production structure has gradually changed from the integrated management of farming, forestry, and animal husbandry into the mode of taking animal husbandry as a dominant industry, farming and forestry as supplementary industries, but the regional agricultural productivity has not been stagnated or weakened.

近年来，乡村旅游已成为青藏高原农民主要的替代生计方式。然而，农业生产与乡村旅游之间的权衡已逐渐严重。因此，我们选取青藏高原乡村旅游的实例扎嘎纳村，从小农视角探讨乡村旅游下的农业生产，并分析其存在严重程度的权衡。基于小农户农业生产行为(包括生产规模、农业投入、农业产出、生产效率)的比较分析，对2005 - 2019年整个研究区域的农业生产进行了回顾。结果表明，青藏高原农业生产与乡村旅游之间存在一定程度的权衡。在小农户层面，在乡村旅游发展背景下，由于小农户畜牧业规模的进一步扩大，农业生产效率(主要是草原生产效率)显著提高。在区域层面，随着乡村旅游的发展，区域生产结构逐步由农林牧一体化经营转变为以畜牧业为主导产业、农林业为补充产业的模式，但区域农业生产力并未停滞或减弱。

关键词（中英文）：Sustainable development; Land use; Livelihoods; Agricultural productivity; Trade-off

可持续发展; 土地利用；生计；农业生产力；权衡

期刊介绍：《Land Use Policy》（土地利用政策）最新影响因子为5.398，主要刊载城市和农村土地使用的社会、经济、政治、法律、自然和规划方面文章，旨在为政府和规划者提供政策指导。

参考资料

[1]

中国失踪的猪：用机器学习方法纠正中国肉猪库存数据: 文献链接：https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12137

[2]

外包是否影响农户的农业生产率?来自中国的证据: 文献链接：https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/CAER-12-2018-0236/full/html

[3]

从作物减产估算产量有多精确?来自埃塞俄比亚小农户玉米农场的证据: 文献链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919221001019?via%3Dihub

[4]

日本农户生产率的微观数据分析：估计农户异质性和品种间替代弹性: 文献链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12639

[5]

青藏高原乡村旅游下的农业生产：小农视角: 文献链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837721000521?via%3Dihub

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